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MBS CLOSE: Uneventful End To Uneventful Day2/8/2010 4:15 PM

Posted To: MBS Commentary

Though MBS were not quite as thinly traded as treasuries (lowest volume since the first trading day of 2010), the picture wasn't much better. At least that which is at risk on low volume days--volatility due to the trading that actually happens comprising a larger portion of the total--was not present. Quite the opposite in fact, as the the same trend that began to emerge early this afternoon remained intact through the close. In MBS, the 101-07 to 101-10 range covered almost everything since 1030 AM. That's a quiet, boring day. I move a lower trendline down to 3.57 on the 10yr yield to show that we're going out today at an even lower yield level than Friday. So don't let the entire day of slightly worse readings fool you... The net effect for both markets was FLAT. And in the...(read more)

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Housing Needs Job Creation. What Sort of Jobs Though?2/8/2010 4:03 PM

Posted To: Voice of Housing

Mr. O’Reilly (December 01, 2009) claims that the “new” root cause of the housing crisis is the (lack of) “jobs, jobs, jobs.” So the solution to the crisis must be (the creation of) “jobs, jobs, jobs.” I agree. But the next question is this: What sort of jobs? Consider a proposal for two, complementary jobs programs. The first is called the “Litter Scattering Brigades.” Workers are paid to strew trash along the nation’s highways. The second jobs program is called the “Litter Gathering Brigades.” Workers are paid to collect the trash strewn on the nation’s highways. The workers of the Scattering Brigade have jobs, and thus can afford a home. The workers of the Gathering Brigade have jobs, and thus can afford a home...(read more)

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Centralized Lock Desks Serve as a Gate Keeper. Source of Revenue2/8/2010 2:54 PM

Posted To: The Garrett Watts Report

This was the half time scene in Miami last night at Super Bowl XLIV... I am sure many watchers were thinking: Why The Who? Maybe some of us in our 60s and 70s need to be “put out to pasture” or start “whittling wood” on the front porch. However, as a boomer, I was inspired to see these guys still rocking and rolling. I enjoyed the music and hope they keep playing. Peter Townsend will go down as one of most brilliant musical writers of all time. That’s enough about The Who and dating myself. Lets’ talk about secondary market and locking loans. One of the areas we review during our FOCIS-plus Studies is whether a company has a centralized lock process. Centralizing the lock function means all lock requests and confirmations are managed by a “gate keeper”...(read more)

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MBS AFTERNOON: Narrow And Stable Heading Into The Close2/8/2010 2:32 PM

Posted To: MBS Commentary

The market is duller than a Colts victory parade at the moment. We're dealing with a fairly standard issue "calm before the storm" that we often see on a data-limited Monday when the rest of the week contains the more significant events. The supportive trends we began to note in the last post have continued to foster a narrow range of prices with almost perfectly flat directional movement. In other words, the simple existence of a "narrow range" doesn't always mean prices aren't moving. We can see narrow ranges while still moving DIRECTIONALLY. For instance, even on a 16 tick rally, if the subsequent highs and lows are only a tick or two higher than their previous marks, the line on the chart would be fairly smooth yet still be very much higher at the end of...(read more)

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MBS LUNCH: Well Off Friday's Highs, But Holding Ground2/8/2010 1:06 PM

Posted To: MBS Commentary

As AQ pointed out this morning, today's slightly downward trend in MBS price began in the final hours of Friday's trading. Both MBS and Treasuries put in their best marks of the day just before 2pm, and have moved steadily downward ever since. You may notice, however, that both markets appear to be losing that negative steam near current levels. For Treasuries, that looks to be around 3.60 and for MBS, around 101-08. At the moment, the Fannie 4.5 is a tick higher than that at 101-09, but is still 5 ticks lower from Friday's closing prices. All that being said, the more important trends to watch pertain to the generally supportive range for MBS that emerged even before Friday's boomy rally. AQ pointed this out as well, and it remains pertinent at the moment. You can see on Thursday...(read more)

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Short Term Direction of Mortgage Rates Dependent Upon Auctions and Stocks2/8/2010 12:43 PM

Posted To: Mortgage Rate Watch

Who Dat!!!! Congratulations to New Orleans on a well played and exciting Super Bowl victory. Mortgage rate moved a few basis points lower on Friday following the Employment Situation Report . While we have seen scattered day over day streaks of improvements, mortgages rates have failed to fall lower than 4.75% in 2010. To remind readers, as mortgage-backed securities prices move higher in price lenders are able to pass along better rates. After what seemed like a steady flow of important economic data and market moving headline news last week, the data schedule slows down in the days ahead, but headline news is always a possibility. In terms of scheduled events, no economic reports are being released today or tomorrow. On Tuesday we have the first of three mortgage rate influential Treasury...(read more)

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MBS MORNING: Testing the Staying Power of Friday's FTQ Rally2/8/2010 10:38 AM

Posted To: MBS Commentary

DID I MENTION THUNDER SNOW ! By the look of the charts, it doesnt appear that we should be expecting any noticeable improvements in positive price momentum today. We are extending the downtrend that began midday Friday. The FN 4.0 is -0-08 at 98-08 yielding 4.169% and the FN 4.5 is -0-05 at 101-08 yielding 4.375%. The secondary market current coupon is 2bps higher on the day at 4.313%. The current coupon yield is 72.4 bps over the 10yr TSY note yield and 62.6 bps over the 10yr swap rate. MBS yields are moderately tighter vs. benchmark yields this morning. The 3.375 coupon bearing 10 year TSY note is -0-06 at 98-06 yielding 3.594% (+2.3 bps from 5pm marks on Friday). The 2s/10s curve is unchanged at the 280bp pivot. The dollar index is weaker vs. a basket of currencies....-0.37% at 80.145. The...(read more)

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MBA Takes Loss on Headquarters; CRA Loans; HAMP Servicer Updates; Prepay Speeds; Updates: GMAC, FAMC2/8/2010 9:11 AM

Posted To: Pipeline Press

I thought about taking today off from the commentary to celebrate, since yesterday I won all 4 quarters of my office's Super Bowl pool! And then I remembered that I was the only one in the pool, don't really have an office, and that the net effect of my $50 a square winnings was about the same as the US Government buying back their own securities. Oh well. Those dues that you pay to the Mortgage Bankers Association - where does the money go? Education, lobbying, etc., but some probably went into buying the MBAA its $90 million headquarters in downtown Washington which it sold last week for $41 million after 3 years. Ouch! CoStar Group, who is moving its headquarters from Maryland to DC, also received a $6 million property tax break - hats off to them. Not only did the MBAA's interest...(read more)

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MBS OPEN: Sideways Start. Searching for Guidance2/8/2010 7:56 AM

Posted To: MBS Commentary

Good Morning. Congrats to the Saints. Here is a recap of my weekend.... We had a blizzard...32 inches of THUNDER SNOW . The driveway was defeated with snowblowers. This is only the first half of the driveway by the way.... The CAPS came from behind to beat the pens. Ovie had a trick plus the game winning assist in OT. Thats 14 in a row for the C-A-P-S CAPS CAPS CAPS. Troy saw his shadow. AH! Six more weeks of football. The Saints won....then my milkaholic ex-gf Lindsay came over. Phew. I am zonked. What a weekend. Stocks sold off in a panicky fashion last week as sovereign debt concerns grew over Greece, Portugal, and Spain's ballooning budget deficit and rising borrowing costs. If a coordinated global recovery is to remain on course, one has to assume some sort of financial intervention...(read more)

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The Week Ahead: Treasury Auctions, Retail Sales, The Fed's Exit, Consumer Sentiment2/8/2010 7:49 AM

Posted To: MND NewsWire

The week ahead is a particularly slow one. The only major releases are the Trade Balance on Wednesday and Retail Sales report on Thursday. Plus, Friday will see February’s first measure of consumer confidence. With little fresh data to anticipate, the fear is that markets will continue on their downward path this week. Since January 19 the Dow has shed 5.6% while the S&P 500 has lost 6.9%. One hour before the opening bell, however, equity markets are looking stable. Dow futures are up 10 points to 10,012 and S&P 500 futures are up 3.08 points to 1,066. Meantime, WTI Crude oil is starting the week 15 cents higher at $71.34 per barrel and Spot Gold is up $1.90 to $1,068.20. The US dollar, by contrast, is lower against the majors after hitting the highest level since the summer of...(read more)

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Reuters Business News

Reuters: Business News
Asian shares mixed; euro wins respite2/9/2010 1:18 AM
TOKYO (Reuters) - Asian shares broadly rose on Tuesday, led by Taiwan and South Korea, and the euro staged a small rebound from its recent drubbing, but Japan and Australia fell as investor sentiment remained weak on euro zone fiscal concerns.
Toyota recalls Prius, other hybrids over brake woes2/9/2010 12:52 AM
TOKYO/DETROIT (Reuters) - Toyota Motor Corp said it is recalling nearly half a million of its flagship Prius and other hybrid cars for braking problems as it seeks to address criticism over the handling of its worst safety crisis.
UBS back to profit in Q4, outflows accelerate2/9/2010 1:57 AM
ZURICH (Reuters) - Swiss bank UBS posted its first quarterly net profit since Oswald Gruebel took the helm a year ago but clients withdrew far more money than forecast, signaling he may need more time to steady the ship.
Toyota pledges more responsiveness to U.S. regulators2/9/2010 12:01 AM
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Toyota Motor Corp President Akio Toyoda wrote in an article published on Tuesday that he has promised the top U.S. transportation official the troubled automaker will be more vigilant in the future about responding to safety regulators.
Nissan returns to Q3 profit, lifts forecast2/9/2010 1:52 AM
YOKOHAMA, Japan (Reuters) - Nissan Motor Co, Japan's No.3 carmaker, said it returned to profit in the third quarter from a year earlier and lifted its outlook for the second time this financial year, buoyed by brisk sales globally.
JAL to stay with American, end Delta talks: source2/8/2010 10:23 PM
TOKYO (Reuters) - Japan Airlines Corp will keep its partnership with American Airlines in the Oneworld alliance due to concerns that forging ties with rival suitor Delta Air Lines would make it difficult to achieve a quick turnaround, a source with knowledge of the matter said.
Swatch full-year profit beats poll, upbeat on 20102/9/2010 1:31 AM
ZURICH (Reuters) - Swatch Group, the world's largest watchmaker by sales, posted a forecast-beating full-year profit and confirmed its upbeat outlook for 2010, easing worries a flagging economic recovery may hit demand.
Macquarie outlook disappoints; shares slide 7 percent2/9/2010 12:14 AM
SYDNEY (Reuters) - Macquarie Group , Australia's top investment bank, forecast a disappointing second-half profit and gave an outlook that raised worries about its key equity business, sending its shares sliding 7 percent.
CIT sets John Thain's salary at $6 million a year2/8/2010 5:02 PM
NEW YORK (Reuters) - CIT Group Inc said its new Chief Executive John Thain will get an annual base salary of $6 million, most of which is in stock, and a bonus of up to another $1.5 million, in a nod to compensation practices popularized by the Obama administration's pay czar.
Electronic Arts outlook disappoints, shares decline2/8/2010 7:06 PM
SAN FRANCISCO (Reuters) - Electronic Arts Inc warned that fiscal 2011 earnings would miss Wall Street expectations as it grapples with a lack of blockbuster new games after a succession of missed targets and restructurings.

Inside Real Estate News

InsideRealEstateNews.com
Denver lands close to 30% of $1 million-plus home sales2/8/2010 5:06 PM
Homes in Denver are holding their values better during this recession than suburban homes, says Corey Wadley of Nostalgic Homes.
Rebchook on Channel 92/7/2010 4:14 PM
I was on Channel 9 news this morning to talk about the story I wrote earlier that only about 1,000 people in Colorado have so far received permanent loan modifications. To check out the video, please visit this link. To read the original story, please visit this link. Contact John Rebchook at JRCHOOK@gmail.com or 303-945-6865. Bookmark It Hide [...]
Pinnacle tops $100 million in sales2/5/2010 3:49 PM
Living in the Pinnacle is like living over Central Park, says Debra Fagan.
Colorado foreclosures: Hopeful signs, but crisis isn’t over2/4/2010 2:35 PM
"We're making good progress," Ryan McMaken.
Colorado foreclosures both rise and fall2/4/2010 9:44 AM
"We’re cautiously optimistic that we won’t be seeing the sorts of increases in foreclosures that we saw during 2006 and 2007," Pat Coyle.
Judges chosen for Rocky Mountain Real Estate Challenge2/3/2010 12:56 PM
"These professionals represent the best and brightest in our industry," Al Colussy.
Only 1,072 permanent loan modifications in Colorado2/1/2010 3:13 PM
"We need to spread the pain, and spread the gain," Byron Koste.
Rick Garcia tapped as HUD director1/29/2010 4:01 PM
"Rick Garcia understands and embraces the sustainable community concept. When you combine that with his extensive work on the affordable housing front and foreclosures, he became the ideal candidate for this position," Shaun Donovan
Boulder builder hammers sleazy lawyers in novel1/29/2010 3:39 PM
"Remember - This is my first recession," quote from Conflicts With Interest.
Denver No. 46 in foreclosures1/28/2010 12:01 AM
The Denver-Aurora area saw a 12 percent decrease in total foreclosures - everything from notices of election and demands to REOs - according to RealtyTrac.


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